FAO Forum Addresses Global Food Supply for 2050

Speaking at a forum addressing the challenges of feeding the world in 2050, FAO Director-General Jacques Diouf said that agriculture must become more productive in order to feed the world’s growing population:

“Agriculture will have no choice but to be more productive. Our analysis shows that future production increases would mostly come from yield growth and improved cropping intensity rather than from bringing more land into cultivation despite the fact that are still ample land resources with potential for crop production particularly in Latin America and sub-Sahara Africa. And this will require substantial increases in investment in the sector – better access to modern inputs, more irrigation systems, machinery and implements, more roads and better rural infrastructures, as well as more skilled and better trained farmers.” (Full text here p.1)

Reading between the lines

Diuof also spoke about the need to ensure that food is being produced by those that need it most, and of problems in distribution systems. It is interesting here to ask what we can read between the lines of the speech. Take this line as an example:

If people go hungry today it is not because the world is not producing enough food but because such food is not produced by the 70% of the world’s poor whose main livelihood is agriculture and who cannot afford to eat their fill. (from full speech, p. 3)

I could read two messages into this line — messages which embrace an altogether more alternative message than that usually espoused by the FAO:

1. First, this sounds like a call for the localization of food production. Diouf says that a major problem is that food is not being produced by those that need it. If it were to be produced by those currently hungry, this would inevitably involve a significant degree of localization of what is currently a much more global food system.
2. This also sounds like a recognition that markets are not functioning to distribute food efficiently and equitably. If we have enough food to feed everyone worldwide, but some aren’t getting what they need, we need to ask questions about the primary mechanism for food distribution: the Market. Do people have equal access to markets? Is food priced out of reach of those currently going hungry?

Can organic feed the world?

Diouf also continues to support intensification of agriculture, and the “judicious use of chemical fertilizers” (p.3). He challenges proponents of organic agriculture, stating:

while organic agriculture contributes to poverty reduction and should be promoted, it cannot feed 6.8 billion today and 9.1 billion in 2050. (from full speech, p. 3)

This conclusion conflicts with a recent study from the University of Michigan, however, that seeks to discount the idea that organic agriculture cannot feed the world. The research, published in Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems (pdf available here), evaluates the claims that organic agriculture cannot feed the world due to low yields and insufficient quantities of organically acceptable fertilizers. Their research, based on dataset of 293 sites worldwide, suggests that:

organic methods could produce enough food on a global per capita basis to sustain the current human population, and potentially an even larger population, without increasing the agricultural land base. (source)

Moreover, the study’s analysis of organic substitution of chemical fertilizers indicates that:

[in] temperate and tropical agroecosystems … leguminous cover crops could fix enough nitrogen to replace the amount of synthetic fertilizer currently in use. (source)

In searching through the ‘Supporting Documents’ posted to the forum website, I can find no mention of organic agriculture, and much less, a clear justification for the rejection of organic methods presented by Diouf. While I don’t spend all my time and energy supporting organic agriculture, I do feel that given the current state of the global food system, we should not be rejecting an agricultural method that offers so much in terms of environmental and social justice.

Resources

Listen to a podcast about about the University of Michigan study.

Watch video reports from the How to Feed the World 2050 forum.

Reference for U Michigan study:

Badgely, C. et al. (2007) Organic agriculture and the global food supply. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems, 22:2, 86-108.